Appropriate technology and the future of HVAC

Scenarios for Future Living is a RACE for 2030 CRC project that brings together multidisciplinary researchers and industry to examine the impact of trends across technology, demographics, urban development and infrastructure.

One of the recent outputs of the CRC was the Scenarios for Future Living: Emerging technology innovation and development report, published by Monash University. It examines evidence gained from expert interviews, industry observations and analysis of 93 reports to identify the mega trends across population demographics, technological change, working life, homes, the climate and the energy system.

The report was authored by a cross-disciplinary team of researchers from Monash University, including Dr Kari Dahlgren, Dr Fareed Kaviani and Professor Yolande Strengers, in collaboration with Dr Rex Martin and Dr Mike Roberts from the University of New South Wales.

Social anthropologist and lead author Dr Kari Dahlgren, from Monash’s Faculty of Arts, says emerging technologies are being developed on assumptions that may not hold in a climate-constrained future.

“Much of today’s technology innovation doesn’t seriously consider the energy system implications of the technology,” Dr Dahlgren says.

“As climate risks intensify, technologies that depend on continuous power and connectivity may face greater challenges to how they function in everyday life.”

The report presents an analysis of the connection between climate change, cooling demand, human comfort, urban development, population trends and both available and emerging technologies.

Oversights and limitations in pre-existing reports, research and industry trends identified included concerns around affordability and equity that are not being adequately addressed, and minimal recognition of the growing importance of indoor air quality.

Monash Energy Institute Director (Research) and co-author Professor Yolande Strengers said the impacts of vulnerabilities will be felt most acutely in the daily practices within our homes.

“These technologies are often framed as solutions to climate challenges, but they are deeply dependent on the very systems that are under increasing stress,” Professor Strengers says.

“We need to be considering these technological innovations and how they are likely to unfold in everyday life, to ensure the system continues to be resilient to these future changes.”

The researchers observed some assumptions – such as heat pump adoption being a rational choice – may not hold true. Projections may be over-optimistic for uptake of technologies, or in the case of digital home technologies may overestimate the level of digital fluency and trust among consumers and assume reliable internet connectivity.

AIRAH asked report co-authors Dr Fareed Kaviani and Dr Rex Martin, who are also working on the Collaboration on Energy and Environmental Markets (CEEM), for some insight into what the HAVC&R industry should be considering.

Drs Kaviani and Martin: The HVAC&R industry can best position itself for future needs by engaging with the broader social and environmental contexts in which these systems operate.

For instance, with climate forecasts predicting worsening air quality and more frequent and extreme heat events, access to clean, cool air will increasingly become a marker of health, safety and wellbeing.

Future designs may need to anticipate more continuous, intensive and varied use, particularly as air purification becomes integrated into HVAC systems to address a range of issues beyond temperature alone, such as bushfire smoke, allergens, humidity, viruses and mould. This has implications for durability, maintenance cycles, filter waste, and embodied material impacts.

Similarly, improvements in efficiency or reductions in the cost of energy – for example through using energy from one’s own solar panels, or during periods or free or cheaper energy – may also contribute to rebound effects that result in greater use of HVAC systems. Designing for longevity, repairability and lower material intensity may become as important as improving operational efficiency.

In terms of better accounting for people, this will involve recognising that households are not uniform, that people have different expectations of comfort, and that the role of HVAC in enacting care responsibilities extends beyond humans, for example to pets and plants. Demographic shifts like ageing in place and the rise of multigenerational homes are also impacting the ways homes are designed and used, with attendant consequences for HVAC systems.

There may also be opportunities to enhance resilience at the household level. For example, integrating built-in battery storage or backup capabilities could allow HVAC systems to continue operating during power outages, which may become more common during extreme weather events. In this sense, HVAC systems can be considered part of essential home infrastructure.

Positioning the industry responsibly will likely involve a shift toward whole-of-system thinking: integrating building design, passive cooling strategies, grid conditions and user practices and routines.

AIRAH: To what extent is there a disconnect between consumer ideas around comfort and wellbeing and the energy resources available? What needs to change: consumer ideas, energy, technology, building design or a mix of these things?

Drs Kaviani and Martin: There appears to be an ongoing disconnect between consumer expectations of comfort and the energy and material resources required to sustain them. Parts of the energy and technology sectors have historically operated on an assumption that people will use resources and systems in economically rational ways.

However, research demonstrates that people use HVAC systems in ways that reflect their own experiences, understandings and needs, but which are not necessarily “rational” or “efficient”. For example, people within households do not always agree on what a comfortable or appropriate indoor temperature is. Similarly, others believe that setting their air conditioner to a specific temperature cools a space more efficiently – yet our research shows that this temperature varies widely between households.

At the same time, Australia’s population is changing. Migrants often bring different cultural norms, needs and lifestyle expectations, which can influence patterns of energy demand in ways that differ from historical norms. Such differences include varied temperature preferences, occupancy patterns, and expectations around indoor air quality and ventilation.

Addressing these dynamics will likely require a combination of approaches: improved building design that reduces the reliance on active cooling, clearer and more intuitive system interfaces, consumer education, and energy systems that can support flexible and responsive demand. It will also involve recognising that comfort and wellbeing are not fixed, but shaped by social, cultural and environmental contexts.

AIRAH: Are there risks technological idealism could divert markets and policy away from solutions that are lower technology, such as retrofits of insulation to existing homes, zoning controls, consumer education and right-sizing of both buildings and equipment?

Drs Kaviani and Martin: Prioritising technology solutions may risk overlooking lower-cost, low- or no-tech interventions that may deliver substantial and immediate benefits.

As electrification and flexible demand become central to energy systems, households already experiencing cost-of-living pressures may struggle to adopt efficient technologies or otherwise adapt their homes. This creates a compounding effect, where those most exposed to climate risks are also least able to mitigate them.

In this context, access to clean, cool air is likely to become increasingly stratified. Households that cannot afford efficient HVAC systems, air purifiers or the energy required to run them when needed will face disproportionate health and safety risks during extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and bushfires.

These dynamics highlight that the challenges of the energy transition are not purely technical. They reflect broader societal challenges linked to affordability, housing quality and social equity. Without deliberate intervention, technological advancement alone may exacerbate, rather than reduce, existing inequalities.

AIRAH: What are some of the policy and regulatory enablers you identified through the research (or separate to it) that will help mitigate risks and could potentially deliver synthesised industry visions as per Part 5 of the report?

Drs Kaviani and Martin: A key finding is that energy policy and climate adaptation policy are still too often treated as separate domains. Bridging this divide will be critical. Policies need to support not only emissions reduction, but also the ability of households to safely and affordably manage and respond to extreme temperatures, poor air quality and other issues associated with climate change such as disruptions to everyday life and infrastructure.

Relatedly, there is a strong need for coordinated, cross-sector approaches that bring together other policy domains that clearly intersect in the real world, but which are commonly treated as separate; examples include housing (particularly regarding social or affordable housing), energy, health, construction standards and urban planning.

An example of policy enablers that reflect a more holistic approach could include targeted support for vulnerable households to improve insulation or to acquire efficient cooling and air purification technologies, accompanied by urban planning that mitigates heat islands and construction standards that reduce the need for heating and cooling in the first place.

Regulatory frameworks should also aim to address issues relating to product durability, repairability and lifecycle impacts, rather than focusing primarily on upfront costs or efficiency ratings. For instance, portable air conditioning units may be used due to building restrictions – not personal preferences.

AIRAH: What were some of the aspects of the research process that encouraged optimism?  Can we achieve resilience and adaptation without optimism?

Drs Kaviani and Martin: Some of the industry experts we spoke with and reports we analysed questioned technological idealism – essentially the idea that technological progress is always positive and inevitable – by critically and thoughtfully engaging with deeper questions about what people actually need and want.

For example, there was scepticism about the need to embed AI into a growing array of household devices and appliances, not least because this may not be something everyday people desire. We found this an optimistic approach because it places people, rather than technologies, at the centre of visions for the future.

AIRAH: Is AI likely to be helpful in improving HVAC efficiency and efficacy, or is there an element of displacing the energy/heat/emissions footprint to the data centres rather than the users of HVAC?

Drs Kaviani and Martin: AI may have potential to improve HVAC performance through real-time optimisation, predictive maintenance and adaptive responses. However, there is growing scepticism toward AI-driven technologies, particularly around privacy, data security and loss of control. People generally want to retain control over how their home environments are managed, and may resist systems that make opaque automated decisions on their behalf.

Ultimately, the effectiveness of AI in HVAC will depend on how well it aligns with household trust, transparency and control – and responds to diverse, dynamic, personal, and private everyday routines. Hybrid approaches, where AI supports but does not override user preferences, are likely to be more acceptable and effective in domestic contexts.

AIRAH: Part of the research involved analysis of a wide variety of reports – did you find there were any that took an objective, pragmatic approach to technological advances?

Drs Kaviani and Martin: Several government and intergovernmental reports acknowledge both the opportunities and risks associated with emerging technologies, particularly in relation to digitalisation and connected devices. However, many tend to assume the continued expansion of these technologies, rather than critically exploring scenarios where their adoption is limited, uneven or contested.

Some exceptions take a more grounded approach. For example, AHURI (the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute) research on assistive technologies in housing highlights practical concerns around cost, accessibility, privacy, data security and rapid obsolescence – particularly for vulnerable users in care settings. These insights are highly relevant to HVAC systems as they become more connected and software-dependent.

Similarly, OECD (the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) work on digital technologies raises important concerns about data privacy, security and informed consent, especially for always-on IoT (Internet of Things) devices. These reports emphasise that while technologies may offer benefits for health, safety and efficiency, they also introduce risks that need to be actively governed, especially with regard to children’s security and wellbeing.

Read the full report here.

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