Refrigerant shortfall warning

The Big Short: Australia’s Refrigerant Supply Challenge, a new independent report by Expert Group, shows that there is a choke point looming for the supply of many gases used for servicing commercial refrigeration and larger air conditioning systems.

Commissioned by Refrigerants Australia, the report draws on Australian Government import records, monthly sales data from major refrigerant wholesalers and industry consultation to assess supply pressures through to 2030.

The issue is the result of restrictions on bulk imports of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants as part of Australia’s efforts to meet the phase-down targets of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal protocol.

However, Expert Group’s research found the nation’s use of these products exceeded bulk imports in 2025. Industry has been drawing on existing stocks and recovered refrigerants to bridge the difference.

With limits on bulk imports of high global waring potential refrigerants set to tighten further, the need for refrigerant supplies to service operating equipment is going to create a pressure point.

“Shortages will emerge progressively, first affecting individual refrigerants, suppliers and regions, well before the aggregate national inventories are exhausted,” says Dr Greg Picker, Refrigerants Australia’s Executive Director.

It will become increasingly difficult to fix refrigeration and air conditioning systems, and an immediate concern is the limited inventory entering the 2026-27 summer period.

 “Stocks of some legacy refrigerants could reach critically low levels in late 2026 or during the 2026–27 summer, well before national inventories as a whole are exhausted,” Dr Picker says.

The Big Short provides details about which refrigerants are most at risk, and when they may become scarce.

Refrigerants Australia suggests three ways future refrigerant shortages can be reduced:

• Industry can accelerate equipment transition to newer refrigerants
• Reduce refrigerant losses through improved installation, service and repair
• Make greater use of the refrigerant already within the Australian market through recovery, recycling, re-use and reclamation.

• Read The Big Short report here

Main image by Myriams-Fotos via Pixabay

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