UNEP report highlights critical dual role for HVAC&R in a warming world

The free degrees, launched at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, finds that cooling demand could more than triple by 2050 under business as usual, driven by increases in population and wealth, more extreme heat events and low-income households increasingly gaining access to more polluting and inefficient cooling. This would almost double cooling-related greenhouse gas emissions over 2022 levels – pushing cooling emissions to an estimated 7.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ by 2050 – despite efforts to improve energy efficiency, phase down climate-warming refrigerants and overwhelm power grids during peak load.

The report recommends adopting a “sustainable cooling pathway”, which could reduce emissions to 64% – 2.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ – below the levels expected in 2050. When combined with rapid decarbonisation of the global power sector, residual cooling emissions could fall to 97% below business-as-usual levels.

“We must reimagine cooling – not as a source of emissions, but as a cornerstone of heat resilience and sustainable development,” write Winston Chow, Lee Kong Chian Professor of Urban Climate, Singapore Management University, and Martin Krause, Director, Climate Change, United Nations Environment Programme in the foreword of the report.

“During heatwaves, access to cooling can mean the difference between life and death. Year-round, it enables thriving communities, food security, continued learning and habitable cities. Sustainable, accessible cooling – from passive design to efficient refrigeration – must be treated as essential infrastructure, as fundamental as clean water, energy and sanitation.”

Building on the 2023 edition’s analysis of global sustainable cooling trends, the report provides the scientific foundation for the Global Cooling Pledge and charts pathways toward near-zero emissions from cooling.

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