Vicious cycle: how will air conditioning affect climate change?

The study from the Beijing Institute of Technology was published in Nature Communications. It looks at how increased access to air conditioning in developing countries is likely to affect emissions over the next 25 years.

The research finds that, in a moderate usage scenario, global emissions from air conditioner use will amount to roughly 113 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) from 2010 to 2050. These greenhouse emissions alone would increase global temperatures by around 0.05°C.

However, the study notes that rising incomes in developing countries means that hundreds of millions of people who have never previously had access to air conditioning will be able to cool their homes in the coming decades. This will reduce inequality, but significantly increase emissions.

According to the study, increased access to air conditioning in developing countries will lead to an additional 14–146GtCO₂e being released by 2050. That would add an extra 0.003–0.05°C of warming above baseline calculations, meaning that air conditioning could realistically account for a 0.1°C increase in global temperatures over the next 25 years.

Given that cumulative greenhouse gas emissions have caused around 1.2°C of warming in nearly 200 years since industrialisation, an increase of 0.05–0.1°C in 25 years from one source alone would be extremely concerning. As such, the study’s authors say the “results highlight the need for a rapid low-carbon cooling transition that balances total warming impacts with equitable cooling access.”

You can read the full study for free on the Nature Communications website.

Image courtesy of Freepik

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