CSIRO predicts more climate extremes

CSIRO has released its seventh biennial State of the Climate report, projecting that in coming decades Australians are likely to experience more heat and fewer cold extremes, as well as more time in drought, more dangerous fire days, and a longer fire season for large areas.

The report draws on Australian and international climate research to analyse and forecast the country’s climate now and into the future.

It catalogues a decade of record-breaking extremes, a result of accelerating climate change exacerbated by anthropogenic (human-caused) impacts, triggering natural disasters with increasing frequency.

A key point mentioned in the report is that Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 ±0.24°C since national records began in 1910.

Additionally, sea surface temperatures have increased by an average of 1.05°C since 1900, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events over land and sea.

Cool season rainfall has decreased in southwest and southeastern Australia, and there has been a decrease in streamflow at most gauges across the country since 1975. However, rainfall and streamflow has increased across parts of the north since the 1970s.

The report tables the global annual mean carbon dioxide concentrations at the highest level on Earth in at least two million years (CO₂ at 414.4ppm and CO₂ equivalent at 516ppm). The average air temperature worldwide has warmed by more than 1°C (since reliable records began in 1850), with every decade since 1980 being warmer than the last.

Sea levels have risen by around 25cm since 1880 and continue to do so at an accelerating rate.

According to CSIRO, these changes have a growing impact on the lives and livelihoods of all Australians.

“Associated changes in weather and climate extremes – such as extreme heat, heavy rainfall and coastal inundation, fire weather and drought – have a large impact on the health and wellbeing of our communities and ecosystems.

“Australia needs to plan for, and adapt to, the changing nature of climate risk now and in the decades ahead,” says CSIRO. “The severity of impacts on Australians and our environment will depend on the speed at which global greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced.”

The report includes new information since 2020 – when the report was last published – such as that published in the 2021 Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The State of the Climate report is intended to inform a range of economic, environmental, and social decision‑making by governments, industries and communities.

Read the full report here.

Photo by Oleksandr Sushko on Unsplash.